Golden Raspberry Awards Odds: Who Will Take Home the Worst Picture Razzie?
The Golden Raspberry Awards are handed out annually to the worst cinematic efforts of the previous year – they’re the opposite of the Academy Awards, with ‘winners’ receiving Razzies instead of Oscars.
To that end, one of the best online sportsbooks has compiled an odds market listing the top contenders to claim the award for Worst Picture of 2024, with the nominations expected to come out in January. And anyone who has been paying attention to movie reviews for the past dozen months won’t be surprised who the oddsmakers at Betano have listed as the favorite on the Worst Picture odds list.
Razzies 2024 Worst Picture Winner
| Movie | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Megalopolis | -167 | 62.55% | $5.99 |
| Madame Web | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey 2 | +900 | 10.00% | $90 |
| Jackpot! | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Borderlands | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Miller's Girl | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Mea Culpa | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Immaculate | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| This is Me Now | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Bad Boys 4 | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Argylle | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Lift | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| Unfrosted | +1900 | 5.00% | $190 |
| No Way Up | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
| If | +2400 | 4.00% | $240 |
| Venom 3 | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
(Odds updated Dec. 30 at 9 a.m. ET.)
Megalopolis leading on Worst Picture odds
Megalopolis has surged in front as the -167 favorite, with the long-anticipated Francis Ford Coppola film arriving with a 45% score on Rotten Tomatoes and a whimper at the box office. Not the greatest showing from the vaunted director of The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now.
Megalopolis recently overtook now-runner-up Madame Web, yet another entry in the stumbling Sony Spider-Man Universe which of course does not actually feature Spider-Man. Starring Dakota Johnson as Madame Web along with Sydney Sweeney, Isabela Merced, and Celeste O’Connor, the movie became a Worst Picture contender from the moment its first trailer came out.
Madame Web went on to receive an ugly 11% score on Rotten Tomatoes and subsequently bombed at the box office, and that level of failure has it listed as a +200 contender to claim the Worst Picture Razzie at the sportsbook. However, note that the previous movie in the Sony Spider-Man Universe, 2022’s Morbius, was also poorly reviewed (15% on Rotten Tomatoes) but it ended up losing the Worst Picture award to Ana de Armas’ Marilyn Monroe biopic Blonde at the Golden Raspberry Awards for that year.
Can Winnie-the-Pooh repeat its Razzie success?
Last year’s Razzie for Worst Picture went to Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey, a horror parody of the popular children’s character made possible when the original 1926 book fell into the public domain. Reviews were not kind – it sits at 3% (not a typo) at Rotten Tomatoes – but it did manage to gross over $7 million on a budget of just $100,000.
That box office success got a sequel rushed into production, and Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey 2 came out this past March to an improved 46% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, the movie sits at +900 odds to be awarded Worst Picture at the 2025 Razzies ceremony.
Other films expected to fight for the Worst Picture award next March include Tyler Perry’s Mea Culpa (+1400), Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted (+1900), and yet another Sony Spider-Man Universe movie, Venom: The Last Dance (+3400). Unfrosted sits at 40% at Rotten Tomatoes, well ahead of Mea Culpa at just 18%. Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral was nominated as Worst Picture for 2019, but it ended up losing to Cats.
As for Venom: The Last Dance, the trilogy-capper is at 41% at Rotten Tomatoes, with the first movie in the series having scored 30%, and the second at 58%. Neither of those movies got a Worst Picture nod.
Rounding out Worst Picture Razzie odds list
Elsewhere on the list, Sweeney has another entry with Immaculate (+1400), but that was actually decently reviewed at 71% at Rotten Tomatoes. Matthew Vaughn’s Argylle (+1900) featured stars like Henry Cavill and Bryce Dallas Howard but ended up at 33% at Rotten Tomatoes. Miller’s Girl (+1400), Lift (+1900), No Way Up (+2400), and If (+2400) are considered Worst Picture contenders as well, along with Jennifer Lopez’s This is Me Now (+1900) and the fourth Bad Boys movie, Bad Boys: Ride or Die (+1900).
Who will take home the Worst Picture Razzie?
Madame Web was a high-profile flop, with a big marketing campaign that included poor Johnson going on practically every show on TV to promote the movie. Still, the fact that the adjacent Morbius failed to claim the Worst Picture award despite being equally terrible gives us pause, especially with the low (though slightly improved) payout on Madame Web. So which of the other contenders makes sense as the pick?
A +1900 wager on Argylle looks to be worth considering due to the massive gap between the quality of its director and cast and the quality of the movie they produced. However, it’s hard to ignore how badly Megalopolis flopped, with its large budget and its legendary filmmaker. Piling on Coppola, who is now 85 years old, seems cruel after his film’s performance, and while the +250 opening odds are long gone, this is still my preferred play.
My Pick: Megalopolis (-167)
Razzies Worst Picture History
| Year | Movie | Studio | Tomatometer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | Can't Stop the Music | Associated Film Distribution | 22% |
| 1981 | Mommie Dearest | Paramount Pictures | 48% |
| 1982 | Inchon | MGM | 0% |
| 1983 | The Lonely Lady | Universal Studios | 0% |
| 1984 | Bolero | Cannon Films | 0% |
| 1985 | Rambo: First Blood Part II | TriStar Pictures, Carolco Pictures | 33% |
| 1986 | Howard the Duck | Universal Studios | 13% |
| 1986 | Under the Cherry Moon | Warner Bros. | 38% |
| 1987 | Leonard Part 6 | Columbia Pictures | 7% |
| 1988 | Cocktail | Touchstone Pictures | 9% |
| 1989 | Star Trek V: The Final Frontier | Paramount Pictures | 23% |
| 1990 | The Adventures of Ford Fairlaine | 20th Century Fox | 25% |
| 1990 | Ghosts Can't Do It | Triumph Releasing | 0% |
| 1991 | Hudson Hawk | TriStar Pictures | 31% |
| 1992 | Shining Through | 20th Century Fox | 41% |
| 1993 | Indecent Proposal | Paramount Pictures | 34% |
| 1994 | Color of Night | Hollywood Pictures | 22% |
| 1995 | Showgirls | MGM, United Artists | 23% |
| 1996 | Striptease | Columbia Pictures, Castle Rock | 13% |
| 1997 | The Postman | Warner Bros. | 14% |
| 1998 | An Alan Smithee Film: Burn Hollywood Burn | Hollywood Pictures | 8% |
| 1999 | Wild Wild West | Warner Bros. | 16% |
| 2000 | Battlefield Earth | Warner Bros., Franchise Pictures | 3% |
| 2001 | Freddy Got Fingered | 20th Century Fox | 12% |
| 2002 | Swept Away | Screen Gems | 6% |
| 2003 | Gigli | Columbia Pictures, Revolution Studios | 6% |
| 2004 | Catwoman | Warner Bros. | 8% |
| 2005 | Dirty Love | First Look Pictures | 6% |
| 2006 | Basic Instinct 2 | MGM, C2 Pictures | 6% |
| 2007 | I Know Who Killed Me | TriStar Pictures | 9% |
| 2008 | The Love Guru | Paramount Pictures | 13% |
| 2009 | Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen | Paramount, DreamWorks, Hasbro | 19% |
| 2010 | The Last Airbender | Paramount Pictures, Nickelodeon Movies | 5% |
| 2011 | Jack and Jill | Columbia Pictures | 3% |
| 2012 | The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 | Summit Entertainment | 49% |
| 2013 | Movie 43 | Relativity Media | 5% |
| 2014 | Saving Christmas | Samuel Goldwyn Films | 0% |
| 2015 | Fantastic Four | 20th Century Fox | 9% |
| 2015 | Fifty Shades of Grey | Universal Pictures, Focus Features | 25% |
| 2016 | Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party | Quality Flix | 4% |
| 2017 | The Emoji Movie | Columbia Pictures | 6% |
| 2018 | Holmes & Watson | Columbia Pictures | 10% |
| 2019 | Cats | Universal Pictures | 19% |
| 2020 | Absolute Proof | One America News Network | NA |
| 2021 | Diana the Musical | Netflix | 12% |
| 2022 | Blonde | Netflix | 42% |
| 2023 | Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey | Altitude Film Distribution, Jagged Edge Productions | 3% |
Golden Raspberry Awards FAQs
Who votes on the Razzies?
Paid members of the Golden Raspberry Award Organization are eligible to vote on the awards; according to the Golden Raspberry Awards Wikipedia page, that group numbers more than 650 people spread across 19 countries.
When are the Razzies awarded?
The 44th annual Golden Raspberry Awards will be handed out the week before the Oscars; no location has been confirmed yet.
Who won the 2023 Razzie Award for Worst Picture?
Winnie-The-Pooh: Blood and Honey was last year's recipient for Worst Picture, securing a Rotten Tomatoes "Tomatometer" score of 3%.
What is the highest rated movie to win the Razzie Award for Worst Picture?
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 owns the distinction of having the highest Tomatometer rating of any Worst Picture recipient, coming in at a respectable 49%.
